EVIDENCE DESK · PAPER MODE
Prove the trade
before you place it.
ACTIVE THESIS · SPY
Pullback continuation
A controlled pullback may offer continuation only if buyers defend the prior breakout and volume confirms the turn.
The goal is not to predict. The goal is to define what must be true—and leave when it isn't.
PROOF BOARD
What the evidence says
Price reclaimed the 50-day average on above-average volume.
Higher low remains intact on the daily structure.
Relative strength is still weaker than the sector leader.
Earnings arrive in nine sessions; gap risk is unresolved.
DECISION GATE
Not ready to trade
Wait for the event-risk decision and a close above 644.10. Until then, this remains research—not a position.
RISK ENVELOPE
Loss decided first.
Account risk0.50%
Shares at stop20
Potential reward$350
LEARN THE MOVE
Why invalidation matters
An invalidation level is the price that proves your original reasoning wrong. It is not a place to negotiate with the market.